Level of need: North Tyneside
Currently in North Tyneside:
The conditions whose prevalence could be increased by climate change are already common in the population. North Tyneside’s rates are already above the national average for many of these conditions, as shown in e 8. With population health outcomes already behind that of the English average, North Tyneside’s population could see worsening health outcomes and existing health inequalities widen.
Compared to 1990 there has been some change in climate change sensitive conditions. Diabetes prevalence increased in 2019 whilst asthma ranking had fallen. Climate change will likely further increase diabetes prevalence and reverse the current trends seen in asthma burden falling.
In 2019 in North Tyneside, the disorders with highest prevalence are oral disorders, headache disorders, and gynaecological diseases. These are not conditions expected to be greatly influenced by climate change.
| Condition |
North Tyneside prevalence Count, (%) |
English average prevalence |
|---|---|---|
| COPD | 5,504 (2.5%) | 1.8% |
| Asthma | 15,749 (7.6%) | 6.5% |
| Hypertension | 36,400 (16.6%) | 14.4% |
| Stroke | 5,714 (2.6%) | 1.8% |
| Coronary heart disease | 8,561 (3.9%) | 3.0% |
| diabetes | 14,599 (8.1%) | 7.5% |
| depression | 26,603 (15.1%) | 13.2% |
Figure 7: QOF calculated prevalence in North Tyneside, OHID
Health projections for 2040:
The Health Foundations REAL Centre has created health predictions for England in 2040. These are primarily based on the ageing population rather than climate changes impact on health. It’s predicted that:
- 1 in 5 adults in England will live with major illness. A potential increase of 2.5 million people living with major illness in 2040 compared to 2019, mainly as a result of an ageing population.
- People are likely to live longer with a major illness.
- The working age population is projected to grow by 4% whilst the those living with major illness will increase by 37%.
- It’s projected that growth in demand will be highest for anxiety, depression, chronic pain, and diabetes, as shown in Figure 8. These conditions are primarily managed by primary care at present.
Climate change is likely to further influence the prevalence of some of these conditions (diabetes, mental health conditions, COPD, heart failure), further worsening the disease burden in the population.
Figure 8: Projected total number of diagnosed cases for the 10 conditions with the highest impact on health care use and mortality among those aged 30 year and older, England, 2019 and 2040. Health Foundation.