Introduction
This document summarises the potential impacts of climate change on the health and wellbeing of the population of North Tyneside. It identifies the potential negative health impacts of climate change and vulnerable populations most at risk.
It is predicted that North Tyneside will see drier, hotter summers and wetter, warmer winters by 2080. These altered weather conditions will see more frequent hazards, such as flooding and heatwaves, occurring.
Climate-related hazards will have direct health impacts on residents, as well as have the potential to disrupt the water, food, infrastructure, and supply systems we depend upon.
However, aligning health and climate change mitigation plans can produce health co-benefits for communities (such as improved air quality, more active travel options, and better insulated and/or ventilated homes). This document aims to show the importance of a connected climate and health strategy in building a healthier, greener, and thriving North Tyneside.
What is Climate Change?
The Earth’s climate has been changing throughout its history however, it has recently been warming at an unprecedented rate. Since the 1800s, climate change has been accelerated primarily by human activity.
Evidence of rapid climate change can be seen in global temperatures increasing, ice sheets shrinking, sea levels rising, and extreme weather events occurring more frequently. We are already seeing the impact of a changing climate on health and wellbeing globally.
How will climate change impact North Tyneside?
The Met Office has produced climate scenario packs for each local authority area. These provide projections for climate change impacts, such as temperature, rainfall, and sea level rise. The figure below shows projections for North Tyneside, in which all modelled scenarios point to hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters.
If local, national, and global mitigation measures are effective, a medium emissions scenario of 2 degrees centigrade global warming level could be achieved, meaning the risk of climate change impacts is reduced. However, if action is not taken to reduce carbon emissions, we could expect a high emissions scenario of 4 degrees centigrade which could result in more intense weather events
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0.6 C GWL 1981 - 2000 |
1.0 C GWL 2001 - 2020 |
1.5 C GWL Paris agreement |
2 C GWL Guideance prepare |
4 C GWL Guidance assess risk |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | degrees C | degrees C | C change | C change | C change |
| Summer Max Temp | 26.1 | 27.7 | +1.8 | +2.5 | +5.5 |
| Summer Avg Temp | 14.6 | 15.5 | +1.2 | +1.8 | +3.8 |
| Winter Avg Temp | 4.3 | 5.0 | +1.0 | +1.3 | +3.8 |
| Winter Min Temp | -6.6 | -5.1 | +2.3 | +3.2 | +5.0 |
| Annual Avg Temp | 9.2 | 9.9 | +1.0 | +1.6 | +3.1 |
| Precipitation | mm/day | mm/day | % Change | % Change | % Change |
| Summer precipitation | 1.7 | 1.72 | +6 | +2 | -16 |
| Winter precipitation | 1.56 | 1.55 | +2 | 0 | +7 |
Figure 1: Local Climate Changes based on Global Warming Levels (GWL), Met Office Climate Report for North Tyneside, Generated 11th October 2024
These changing climate conditions will pose the following hazards:
Heatwaves: Summers are predicted to become hotter and drier. The UK will experience longer, more frequent, and more severe heatwaves. Urban areas will be significantly hotter due to increased population and infrastructure density. This is known as the urban heat island effect.
Air Quality: Both indoor and outdoor air quality will be negatively impacted. North Tyneside JSNA Topic: Climate Change Published: Sep 2024 4 Outdoor: Higher temperatures can worsen air pollution, drought can increase the amount of dust particles, more wildfires can create smoke, and high winds can spread allergens like pollen and fungal spores. Indoor: The energy efficiency of buildings, emissions from indoor sources such as cooking appliances, the presence of damp and mould, and external air quality can all impact on indoor air quality.
Flooding: Flooding is affected by landscape, flood management practices, soil type, river flow rates, building in flood risk locations, urban development, and drainage impact. It’s predicted that warmer, wetter winters may lead to increased flooding. Whilst summers will be drier overall, more intense rainfall is expected to increase flooding risk.
Coastal erosion: Coastal erosion is increasing due to sea levels rising, increased storm activity, heavier rainfall, and the urbanisation of coastal environments. Increased erosion can lead to loss of natural or built coastal infrastructure and defences.
Wildfires: Combinations of lower humidity and low rainfall, higher temperatures and higher windspeeds may make wildfires more likely. The hotter, drier weather means the UK may see increased frequency, intensity, and scale of wildfires.
Recent extreme weather events have impacted the North East. The frequency of these weather events is increasing as a result of climate change and impacting residents, businesses, services, and infrastructure.