Projected Need and Demand
Across England, cervical screening uptake continues to fall. During 2023–24, 5.12 million individuals aged 25–64 were invited to screening, but only 3.25 million were tested a 5.3% decrease in participation compared to the previous year. This decline in coverage risks later-stage diagnosis, which is associated with significantly poorer prognosis and higher mortality rates. [23]3 .
In November 2023, NHS England reaffirmed its ambition to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040, in line with the World Health Organisation’s target of fewer than 4 cases per 100,000 women. Achieving this goal relies on three pillars: high HPV vaccination coverage, effective cervical screening, and access to timely diagnosis and treatment[24][25].
The HPV vaccination programme has significantly reduced rates of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN3) and cervical cancer among vaccinated cohorts, particularly those vaccinated at ages 12–13. All boys and girls aged 12 or 13 in the UK are routinely offered the HPV vaccine at school. These vaccines protect against the types of HPV that are most likely to cause cervical cancer. In 2023/2024 83.4% of females and 78.5% of males received their year 8 HPV vaccine in North Tyneside[26] . see table 2 below for North Tyneside's HPV coverage within North Tyneside.
Table 2: 2023-2024 HPV vaccination coverage years 8-10 in North Tyneside26
2023/24 | Year 8 females dose 1 coverage (%) |
Year 8 males dose 1 coverage (%) |
Year 9 females dose 1 coverage (%) |
Year 9 males dose 1 coverage (%) |
Year 10 females dose 1 coverage (%) |
Year 10 males dose 1 coverage (%) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Tyneside | 83.4% | 78.5% | 92.9% | 84.6% | 80.8% | 85.3% |
However, women born before September 1990 did not benefit from this programme and remain at elevated risk. Regular screening remains essential for both vaccinated and unvaccinated women, as the vaccine does not provide protection against all high-risk HPV types. National projections have suggested that cervical cancer incidence could increase by up to 50% among women aged 50–64 by 2040. This cohort of women largely unvaccinated will continue to require access to cervical screening and cancer care services [27].
Changes to the National Cervical Screening Programme
The NHSE/I commission the national cervical screening service (NCSP) to be delivered by GP practices and sexual health centres.
The UK National Screening Committee has made four changes to the cervical screening programme in the last decade.
In the future the screening interval will be extended from 3.5 years 50 5.5 years for 25–49-year-olds, in line with the 50-64-year-olds. This recommendation has been implemented in Scotland (2020) and Wales (2022), but there is currently no published implementation timeline for England[28].
Currently, there is no formal HPV home testing programme for under-screened women in the UK, however, NHS England have trialled a home testing kit initiative across 166 primary care centres in areas with particularly low attendances [29]. The official enrolment of home testing kits in the UK may significantly increase participation and uptake by overcoming previously mentioned barriers[30].
[23] Cervical screening in England. Available at: https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/cervical-screening-annual/england-2023-24 [accessed 16/6/2025}
[24] Cervical cancer elimination by 20240 plan. Available at: https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/cervical-cancer-elimination-by-2040-plan-for-england/ [accessed 16/6/2025]
[25] Elimination of Cervical Cancer. Available at: Global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer as a public health problem [accessed 16/6/2025]
[26] HPV vaccination data 2023-2024. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/679206957495e451d6dde4a0/HPV-data-tables-2023-to-2024.ods [accessed 16/6/2025]
[27]Prediction of cervical cancer incidence in England. Available at: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5765529/ [available at 16/6/2025]
[28] UK national screening committee. Available at: Cervical cancer - UK National Screening Committee (UK NSC) - GOV.UK [accessed 16/6/2025]
[29] At home HPV testing. Available at: NHS England » NHS gives women Human Papillomavirus Virus (HPV) home testing kits to cut cancer deaths [accessed 16/6/2025]
[30] A review of screening uptake in the UK. Available at: HPV and Cervical Cancer: A Review of Epidemiology and Screening Uptake in the UK - PMC [accessed 16/6/2025]