Adult social care

Projected need and demand

For older people (55+ years)

  • Over 55+ population
    • 2029 – 80,534
    • 2034 – 83,672
  • Over 65+ population
    • 2029 – 50,432
    • 2034 – 54,709
  • Over 75+ population
    • 2029 – 23,697
    • 2034 - 26,491

The 65+ population forecasted to increase 19% by 2030 and 27% by 2040, which has led to a similar increase in the number having health needs.

  • 11,276 have a limiting long term illness impacting a lot on day-to-day activities, forecasted to increase to 13,936 in 2030 and 16,239 in 2040.
  • 7,696 are unable to manage to at least one activity on their own, forecasted to increase by 9,430 in 2030 and 11,356 in 2040.
  • 12,013 needs help with self-care, will increase to 14,884 in 2030 and 17,563 in 2040.

Whilst many older people are remaining independent for longer with earlier identification of disease or the disease is well managed, the increase rate of long term conditions in the over 90s means that the rate of social care is higher. There is an increased rise in those living with multiple long term conditions.

Accommodation projections

  • Retirement/sheltered housing: estimated additional need to 2034 is around 2,000 homes:
    • Around 900 homes for social/affordable rent (including potentially shared ownership).
    • Around 1,100 for open market sale.

Extra care housing with estimated additional need to 2034 is around 570 homes.

  • Around 255 homes for social/affordable rent (including potentially shared ownership). Adults with a learning disability/on the autistic spectrum, including young people ‘transitioning’ to adult services. The 18+ population of people with learning disabilities/Autistic people is projected to increase (from an estimated 827 people) to 926 people by 2029 and 964 people by 2034.

Adults with mental health needs

  • An additional around 35 units of supported housing and 20 units of Shared Lives accommodation are needed by 2029; an additional circa 70 units of supported housing and circa 45 units of Shared Lives accommodation are needed by 2034.

Adults with physical disabilities. By 2034, it is estimated that the need for accessible housing will be:

  • Neatly 8,165 accessible and adaptable homes (i.e. not fully wheelchair adapted dwellings), similar to Part M(4) Category 2, broadly equivalent to the Lifetime Homes standard.
  • This is the equivalent of a need for roughly 816 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2034 for the all-age population.
  • Among the working-age population, this is the equivalent of a need for about 327 accessible and adaptable homes required per year to 2034.