Demographics and Economic Profile
Socio-economic factors shape demand for childcare. This section considers the impact of North Tyneside’s changing population and economy on the childcare sector.
Demographics
The size of the 0-4 year old population is an indicator of demand for early years childcare. The 5-14 population can act as an indicator of demand for school wraparound childcare provision.
Population estimates and projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) can be seen in the following table below. This data suggests that the 0-4-year-old population will remain static until 2027 before showing signs of recovery.
The 5-14-year-old population is expected to decline from 2024. The reduced demand could improve sufficiency in the short term, but a prolonged decline may result in sustainability issues for some providers, which in turn impact upon wider sufficiency in the future.
Population estimates and projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS):
| Age group | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 4 | 11,419 | 11,261 | 10,856 | 10,701 | 10,407 |
| 5 to 14 | 23,923 | 23,997 | 24,049 | 24,272 | 24,339 |
| Age group | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 4 | 10,585 | 10,582 | 10,581 | 10,588 | 10,604 | 10,611 |
| 5 to 14 | 24,120 | 23,893 | 23,663 | 23,489 | 23,021 | 22,874 |
Source: ONS via NOMIS – population mid-year estimates and projections (22/10/2024)
The demographic structure of wards and localities can indicate demand, although North Tyneside is a small borough and many families access provision outside of their locality. The ONS mid-2022 population estimates by ward can be seen in table below. Across North Tyneside, 30% of the 0-14 population are aged 0-4 years.
| Ward | Age 0 to 4 | Age 5 to 14 |
|---|---|---|
| North East | 2,093 | 5,559 |
| Cullercoats & Whitley Bay South | ||
| Monkseaton | ||
| New York & Murton (c 1/2 NE) | ||
| St Mary’s | ||
| Whitley Bay North | ||
| North West | ||
| Backworth & Holystone | ||
| Camperdown | ||
| Killingworth | ||
| Shiremoor (c 1/2 NW) | ||
| Weetslade | ||
| South East | ||
| Chirton & Percy Main | ||
| New York & Murton (c 1/2 SE) | ||
| North Shields | ||
| Preston with Preston Grange | ||
| Shiremoor (c 1/2 SE) | ||
| Tynemouth | ||
| South West | ||
| Battle Hill | ||
| Forest Hall | ||
| Howdon | ||
| Longbenton & Benton | ||
| Wallsend Central | ||
| Wallsend North |
NB data are for best-fit LSOA wards as data are not yet available for the new 2024 ward boundaries Source: ONS mid-2022 population estimates
Within the Local Plan two strategic housing sites have been identified at Killingworth Moor and Murton.
Across North Tyneside 26% of households had dependent children.
ONS data (ethnicity by age) shows that between 2011 and 2021 the percentage of those aged 0-4 from BME groups has reduced, whilst the percentage aged 5-14 from BME groups has increased.
Deprivation
High levels of deprivation are associated with reduced demand for paid childcare. The national ‘Childcare and Early Years Survey of Parents 2023’ found that the deprivation level of the local area was key determinant of the use of formal childcare. 74% of children aged 0 to 4 years living in the least deprived areas received formal childcare compared to 57% in the most deprived areas. The family’s (gross) annual income was also a key determinant, 4% of children aged between 0 and 4 years in families with an annual gross income of £45,000 or more received formal childcare, compared to 55% of those in families with an annual gross income of under £10,000.
The map below shows the geographical distribution of deprivation in North Tyneside, using the National Rank of Index of Multiple Deprivation by Lower Super Output Area.
North Tyneside’s least deprived communities are in the coastal areas, in the east of the borough. These communities would be expected to display strong local demand for formal paid childcare, working families entitlements and paid wraparound care. Higher deprivation levels in the North-West of the borough and the communities running along the Tyne, will reduce demand for formal paid childcare in these localities. Eligibility for the funded 2 year old entitlements, for families receiving additional government support will be higher in areas experiencing greater deprivation. Areas with high deprivation will also have demand for universal 3 and 4 year old funded placements. It is important that funded early years places are available in deprived communities, as high quality early years provision can significantly enhance the life chances of children experiencing deprivation.
The Economy
The ONS Annual Population Survey estimates suggest that, between the years July 2020 to June 2021 and July 2023 to June 2024, there may have been has been a fall in the percentage of people aged 16-64 in North Tyneside who are in employment; from 73.3% (June 2021) to 69.5% (June 2024). This differs from the broadly unchanged comparative regional estimates (70.6% and 71.1%). The picture nationally is of increased employment, from 74.8% to 75.7%. NB there is an increased level of uncertainty around Annual Population Survey estimates for local authority areas.
The employment rate in North Tyneside, regionally and nationally can be seen in the following table. A reduction in paid employment could potentially reduce the demand for paid for childcare and working families entitlements, however, this will depend on whether fewer families with children are economically active.
Employment rates
The table below shows employment rates (June 2024) in North Tyneside, compared to the England and North East averages.
| Employment rate by ages | North Tyneside (%) | England (%) | North East (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 to 64 | 69.5 | 75.7 | 71.1 |
| 16 to 19 | 43.4 | 32.6 | 38.2 |
| 20 to 24 | 44.3 | 66.1 | 65.7 |
| 25 to 34 | 73.5 | 84.6 | 76.6 |
| 35 to 49 | 84.8 | 86.1 | 83.8 |
| 50 to 64 | 65.5 | 71.9 | 65.5 |
Overall employment in North Tyneside is lower than national for all age ranges other than 16-19 where it is higher. North Tyneside employment rates are similar to regional rates, other than the higher rate for aged 16-19 and much lower rate for aged 20-24. NB local authority Annual Population Survey estimates have a high level of uncertainty for age groups.