Projected need and demand
Government targets set out in the policy paper ‘Tackling obesity: empowering adults and children to live healthier lives’ are to reduce the number of adults living with obesity, and to halve childhood obesity by 2030. However, nationally projected rates of overweight and obesity in Reception pupils are expected to rise to almost 25% by 2040, with the rate among Year 6 pupils expected to rise to over 40%.
Furthermore, as shown in Figure 5 below, projected trends in data for adults (16+ years) suggest that overweight, obesity and severe obesity will all increase over coming years. This upward trend is likely to have been accelerated by the impact of COVID-19. It is projected that there will be more individuals who are obese compared to people who are healthy weight in the UK by 2040 – making obesity the most common BMI status This will mean increased demand on local authority weight management support services and NHS services.
Figure 5. Overweight and obesity prevalence projections for adults (aged 16+) in the UK
