Projected need and demand
The main risk factors for the development of LD are typically random and non-modifiable e.g. chromosomal abnormalities. There is no broad expectation that these risk factors will become more prevalent in the future, which likely explains why the projected trends in adult LD are relatively stable, and in line with general population increases (Figure 1). It is therefore reasonable to conclude there will be no significant increase in the prevalence of LD across North Tyneside in the future.
| Age group | 2023 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| People aged 18-24 predicted to have a learning disability | 124,330 | 126,462 | 140,571 | 143,478 | 135,170 |
| People aged 25-34 predicted to have a learning disability | 188,271 | 185,268 | 176,230 | 182,124 | 196,488 |
| People aged 35-44 predicted to have a learning disability | 185,771 | 187,829 | 190,404 | 186,060 | 177,726 |
| People aged 45-54 predicted to have a learning disability | 169,440 | 168,200 | 171,405 | 180,771 | 183,770 |
| People aged 55-64 predicted to have a learning disability | 167,529 | 170,918 | 167,199 | 158,842 | 161,813 |
| Total population aged 18-64 predicted to have a learning disability | 835,341 | 838,678 | 845,807 | 851,275 | 854,967 |
Figure 1- Adult learning disability baseline projections for England (Data source PANSI)