Projected need and demand
The number of new lung cancer cases on average each year is projected to rise from around 55,400 cases in 2023-2025 to around 66,200 cases in 2038-2040. However, overall the rates of new lung cancer diagnoses are projected to fall by 2% by 2040. For females, lung cancer rates are projected to rise by 3% in this time period, while rates are project to fall by 7% in males. Historically, rates of lung cancer have been higher in males compared to females, but these are predicted to become similar by 2040. This is thought to be largely due to historical smoking patterns, with smoking rates among males reaching a peak earlier than in females [i].
Predictions of smoking prevalence suggest that overall, smoking prevalence is projected to reduce to 6.0% by 2040 [ii]. Currently, the prevalence of smoking in North Tyneside is 11.2%, which is lower than the average across England at 12.7%.
As of February 2024 there were 1,991 people on the waiting list for a CT scan at Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust. Current waiting lists should be considered in light of any new screening programmes which may increase demand.
As part of the National Lung Health Check Screening Programme, individuals will be offered referral to smoking cessation services where appropriate. The possibility of increased demand for our local smoking cessation services therefore needs to be taken into account.