Falls

Ageing population

Based on 2021 census data, the Office for National Statistics population estimates for 2022 predicted there were around 12.7 million people aged over 65 in the UK, equivalent to 19% of the population. By 2072 this number could rise to 22.1 million people, which would represent 27% of the projected population. The number of people aged 80 and over is the fastest growing segment of the population and is set to double to over 6 million over the next 40 years.

In 2022, the percentage of people aged 65 and over in North Tyneside was estimated to be 20.8% a figure which will only increase if projected population estimates are accurate. Given the risk of falling increases with advancing age, an increase in falls related demands on healthcare services can be confidently predicted in line with an ageing population.

Increasing prevalence of multimorbidity

Not only are people living longer but also the duration of time people will spend living with major illness/s, including obesity and type 2 diabetes, is also expected to increase (18,19). Both obesity and type 2 diabetes increase the risk of falling in older adults (20,21). The impact of advancing age, compounded by the rise in multimorbidity, will likely result in an increased prevalence of falls amongst older adults.

Physical inactivity

The proportion of adults who are physically inactive decreases with age. The Sport England Active Lives Adult Survey 2022-23 report showed only 43% of adults over 75 are active (i.e. achieve at least 150 minutes of moderate intensity activity per week), compared with over 60% for adults aged between 35-74. Lack of exercise is a major contributory factor to frailty and loss of function (22), and as a result increases the risk of falls. Whilst we may not know how active older people will be in the future, if there were to be a trend of decreasing activity levels amongst older adults, say due to the increased prevalence of chronic health conditions, that could potentially further exacerbate the prevalence of falls.